By Aliyah Siddiqui
Nation and World Editor
With the 2024 presidential election a year away, new polls are predicting who may win in the upcoming election. Although polls may not be the best at foreseeing election results, as demonstrated by the 2016 presidential election, these new predictions are raising alarms for both Democrats and Republicans.
According to one poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, which surveyed 1,610 self-identified registered voters in a telephone survey conducted between Oct. 26 to Oct. 30, in the case of a three-way election between Independent Robert Kennedy Jr., Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, Kennedy is expected to get support from 22% of registered voters, Trump 36% and Biden 39%. These numbers are striking, making Kennedy one of the most standout independent candidates since Ross Perot in 1992.
According to Politico, many factors play a role in Kennedy’s popularity. For one, Kennedy’s campaign is supported by the super PAC American Values 2024, which has already raised over $11 million to support Kennedy’s campaign, as well as donors who have previously contributed to Trump’s and Biden’s campaigns. Additionally, a number of Republicans and Democrats find both Trump and Biden unfavorable, potentially making Kennedy a viable candidate for a third party in the 2024 election.
“With minority and younger voters seeming intrigued, Kennedy, for now, enjoys the kind of demographic support his charismatic father and uncles generated decades ago,” Malloy said.
The Quinnipiac poll also predicts that in case of a match between Trump and Biden only, 47% of registered voters would support Biden while 46% would support Trump.
“Trump goes to war with the American legal system, while Biden wrestles with military conflicts on two fronts,” Tim Malloy, a polling analyst from Quinnipiac University said. “Despite the swirling tumult, the partisan criticism, and rancor, the two candidates are still as tied as tied can be.”
In another poll from Sienna College and The New York Times, Trump is expected to win five out of six swing states, specifically Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania with Biden only winning Wisconsin. The organizations surveyed 3,662 registered voters in the states through cellular and landline phones in both English and Spanish between Oct. 22 and Nov. 3.
According to The New York Times, nearly one-fifth of voters in these states did not like either candidate. In the 2016 election, these voters, dubbed “double haters,” voted more for Trump, but in 2020, Biden won them over. According to the poll, 42% of the double haters planned to vote for Trump as compared to the 34% who planned to vote for Biden and 24% who were undecided.
“There’s a lot of people in the United States and you’re telling me that these are the only two guys we can come up with,” said Julie Mock, a banker in Las Vegas who was interviewed by NYT. “Really? This is it? This is our choices? You know, we really cannot come up with somebody who’s a little bit more vigorous and younger?”
Another study from Stack Data Strategy, which works with the National Republican Congressional Committee and Conservative Party in the U.K., also revealed that Trump would beat Biden in the electoral college vote by 292 votes to 246, but Biden would win a majority of the popular vote by 49% to 48%. This poll was conducted by surveying 15,205 registered voters between Oct. 13 and Nov. 3. While the margin for the popular vote is slim, if the results come to fruition, the election would be the third time since 2000 that a president won without winning the popular vote.
While these polls do give a snapshot of how Americans are faring now, it is important to note that with over a year until the election and general limitations of polls, these numbers do not represent how the actual election will play out. Until then, as candidates continue to campaign and speak to voters, newer polls will come out as Americans decide who they feel is best to be President.
