By Derek Hubbard
Correspondent
Governor Phil Murphy (D) narrowly defeated Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey’s governor election, but for Democrats, this win provides little cause for celebration.
By most accounts, Murphy should have won comfortably. President Biden walloped Republican incumbent Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, beating him by 16 points. Three years prior, Murphy cruised to the governorship with a nearly 15 point victory over Republican Kim Guadagno.
Pollsters predicted a comfortable Murphy victory, not a 2 point nailbiter. In South Jersey, Senate President Stephen Sweeney lost his re-election bid to Republican Edward Durr, a shocking defeat for arguably New Jersey’s second most powerful politician.
Clearly something has gone amiss for the Democrats, and their shortcomings are not limited to the Garden State. In Virginia’s gubernatorial race, GOP businessman Glenn Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe. McAuliffe was the favorite for most of the race, with Youngkin gaining ground in the weeks prior to the election. Yet, similarly to New Jersey, Virginia has been trending blue in recent election cycles. Biden won the state by 11 points in the 2020 presidential election.
If Virginia and New Jersey’s elections tell us anything, it’s that Democrats are in serious trouble with the 2022 midterm elections quickly approaching.
Two factors are working against them: voter frustration with the direction of the country, and the always-present political pendulum. On Nov. 2, CNN’s John King wisely noted that “this is not a good election to be an incumbent.” He is right; recent polling shows that 64% of voters believe that the United States is on the “wrong track.” Luckily for the Democrats, they only had to defend the Virginia and New Jersey governorships in 2021, but they will have to preserve their House and Senate majorities in 2022. If voter pessimism continues, Democrats may soon feel their wrath.
Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy (D) defeated Jack Ciattarelli (R) in an unexpectedly close election. (Flickr / “Phil Murphy for Governor” by Phil Murphy. May 10, 2016)
At the federal level, American politics are extremely competitive. Over the last ten Congresses, Democrats have controlled both chambers three times, while the GOP has had full control four times. American voters, by and large, refuse to permanently sway to the left or right. They often vote out the president’s party in the midterm elections, pushing the “political pendulum” in the opposite direction. Currently, the pendulum is leaning to the left, with the Democrats in full control of the legislative and executive branches. The progressive wing of the party has recently gained greater influence, and thus pushed the pendulum even further left. If historical trends continue, Democratic majorities will be at risk in 2022.
Fortunately for the Democrats, the New Jersey and Virginia elections send a strong message without immediately inflicting great harm upon the party.
Democratic legislators have a full year to adjust to the pessimistic political climate before the midterm elections. Now that they are aware of voter discontent, they can either adjust their policies accordingly or hope that their current agenda eventually makes a difference. If Democrats see the N.J. and V.A. races as a shift to the political right, they could moderate their own agenda to alleviate this troubling trend.
Ultimately, the Democrats are still in power, and the ball is still in their court. They have been warned of potential electoral doom and now need to respond appropriately.
