By Derek Hubbard
Correspondent
Eight years after annexing Crimea from Ukraine, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is massing his forces on Ukraine’s northern and eastern borders, likely in preparation for a larger military operation against the country.
Putin, who called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” has the former Soviet republic in his crosshairs. The Russian dictator, apparently unwilling to respect the will of the Ukrainian people and the post-Cold War geopolitical reality, claimed in 2019 that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people,” and would like to see some kind of “integration” of the two countries. As Russia flexes its military muscles, analysts are worried that Putin will seek an “integration” through force.
The U.S. and its allies have made it clear that they will not tolerate Russian expansion. After Putin’s 2014 invasion and subsequent annexation of Crimea, Ukraine’s southern peninsula, the West responded with harsh sanctions. Most metrics show that the sanctions have hurt the Russian economy, but they apparently have not quelled Putin’s ambitions.
President Joe Biden promises more sanctions if Russia once again invades Ukrainian territory. When pressed on the past ineffectiveness of sanctions, Biden asserted that Putin has “never seen sanctions like the ones I’ve promised.”
One can only hope that the American president is not bluffing and that his sanctions do indeed deter Russia from continually invading the country’s neighbors. Naturally, thoughts of unchecked European expansionism lead us to one of the darkest years in the twentieth century: 1939. After consistently giving in to German dictator Adolf Hitler’s territorial demands, Britain promised to defend Poland from a German invasion. Hitler then invaded Poland, sparking the World War that left millions dead and a continent in ruins.
Fortunately, the free world is in a much better position to defend against current Russian aggression than it was to defend Europe from Hitler’s maniacal plans. In 1939, Britain and its allies were reeling from the Great Depression and the United States wanted no part of another war.
Today, the Russian economy is dwarfed by those of the U.S., U.K. and their allies. Many Western and Central European countries, Ukraine excluded, are NATO members, thus ensuring their collective security and providing a bulwark against Russian military action. Russia and the West both possess massive stockpiles of nuclear weapons, providing a great threat to humanity, but hopefully creating a valuable deterrent against a major Russian attack. Putin, although nostalgic for Soviet-era power, presumably does not want to ensure the obliteration of his country.
Despite the comparatively stronger position of the U.S. and its allies, Putin’s actions test the institutions that have preserved the long European peace.
Will the U.S. and E.U. countries craft truly crippling sanctions, even if they have to make sacrifices, namely that of Russian oil? Will they remain committed to stopping Russian aggression, even after Russia takes retaliatory measures? If, God forbid, Putin attacks a NATO member country, will they enact Article V of the NATO charter and defend their ally? These questions remain to be answered, but 1939 provides a cautionary tale against appeasement of a hostile power.
